MeritValue

VISTEON CORP

VCdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VISTEON CORP earns about 25% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $75.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.77B1$3.76B2$3.95B3$3.87B3$3.77B3
Net income$41M4$124M5$568M6$296M6$201M6
Operating cash flow$58M7$167M8$267M9$427M9$410M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$353M10$349M11$336M12$319M13$301M13
Cash & equivalents$452M14$520M15$515M16$623M17$771M17
Diluted shares28.4M28.5M28.5M27.9M27.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$568.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$72.83
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$109.06

10 shares is a claim on $568.12 of net worth that earned you $72.83 last year, against $109.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 28%FY23 32%FY24 30%FY25 20%

It earned an average 25% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$75.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$201M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$96.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111335-24-000018 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111335-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111335-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111335-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111335-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111335-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111335-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111335-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111335-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111335-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111335-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111335-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001111335-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111335-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111335-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111335-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001111335-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)