MeritValue

Valion Bio, Inc.

VBIOdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Valion Bio, Inc. earns about -170% on equity, and has bought back 67% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.26M1$1.84M2$1.18M3$780,0003—
Net income−$8.49M4−$10.1M5−$8.24M6−$5.66M7−$8.88M7
Operating cash flow−$5.61M8−$8.92M9−$8.51M10−$5.73M11−$7M11
Capital expenditure—$11,00012$118,00013$014$38,00014
Free cash flow (derived)—−$8.93M9−$8.63M10−$5.73M11−$7.04M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$13M15$3.52M16$3.4M17$2M18$12.6M18
Diluted shares3.5M96,77846,650287,3701.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$145.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$76.83
Free cash flow it threw off
−$60.9
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $145.36 of net worth that earned you −$76.83 and generated −$60.9 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-170% avg · 5y
FY21 -64%FY22 -278%FY23 -230%FY24 -223%FY25 -53%

It earned an average -170% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−67% shares · 5y

Share count is down 67% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011359 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035946 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043234 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011359 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035946 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043234 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010343 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011359 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035946 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043234 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010343 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035946 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043234 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010343 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011359 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035946 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043234 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010343 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)