MeritValue

INNOVATE Corp.

VATEdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.21B1$1.64B2$1.42B2$1.11B3$1.25B3
Net income−$227.5M4−$35.9M5−$35.2M6−$34.6M7−$60.6M7
Operating cash flow$27M8−$9.5M9$26.5M10$9.1M11$146.6M11
Capital expenditure$24.1M12$20.7M13$18.4M14$19M14$500,00015
Free cash flow (derived)$2.9M8−$30.2M9$8.1M10−$9.9M11$146.1M11
Total debt$69.5M16$30.6M17$30.5M18$162.2M19$581.4M19
Cash & equivalents$45.5M20$80.4M21$80.8M22$48.8M22$112.1M22
Diluted shares77.1M77.5M7.8M10.7M13.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$181.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$45.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$110.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$439.87

10 shares is a claim on −$181.65 of net worth that earned you −$45.85 and generated $110.53 of cash last year, against $439.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−83% shares · 5y

Share count is down 83% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 737% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$8.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$8.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001006837-23-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001006837-24-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001006837-26-000014 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001006837-23-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001006837-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001006837-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001006837-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001006837-23-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001006837-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001006837-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001006837-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001006837-23-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001006837-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001006837-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001006837-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001006837-23-000018 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001006837-24-000023 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001006837-25-000021 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001006837-26-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001006837-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001006837-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001006837-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)