MeritValue

MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE Corp

VACdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE Corp earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $54.79 and $64.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.62B1$4.36B2$4.41B3$4.63B3$4.67B3
Net income$49M4$391M5$254M6$218M6−$308M6
Operating cash flow$343M7$522M8$232M9$205M9$28M9
Capital expenditure$47M10$65M11$118M12$57M12$57M12
Free cash flow (derived)$296M7$457M8$114M9$148M9−$29M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$342M13$524M14$248M15$197M16$406M16
Diluted shares43.3M45.2M43.5M42.1M34.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$571.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$88.25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.31
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $571.06 of net worth that earned you −$88.25 and generated −$8.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 20%FY23 12%FY24 10%FY25 -15%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $54.79 and $64.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$54.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$114M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$114M
Earnings Power Value
$64.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$218M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.3
Base0.0%$58.3
Bull5.0%$69.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001524358-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001524358-25-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001524358-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001524358-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001524358-25-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001524358-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001524358-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001524358-25-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001524358-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001524358-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001524358-25-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001524358-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001524358-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001524358-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001524358-25-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001524358-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)