MeritValue

Virginia National Bankshares Corp

VABKdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Virginia National Bankshares Corp earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.84 and $58.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$48.3M1$56.7M2$70M3$75.9M4$77.2M4
Net income$10.1M5$23.4M6$19.3M7$17M8$19.3M8
Operating cash flow$13.1M9$22.7M10$13.9M11$15.3M12$21.3M12
Capital expenditure$1.29M13$546,00014$1.17M15$733,00016$582,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$11.8M9$22.1M10$12.7M11$14.6M12$20.8M12
Total debt——$66.5M17$20M18$20M18
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares4.7M5.4M5.4M5.4M5.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$339.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.55
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$36.91

10 shares is a claim on $339.88 of net worth that earned you $35.55 and generated $38.3 of cash last year, against $36.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 20%FY23 17%FY24 30%FY25 30%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 70% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.84 and $58.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$58.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.3%
  • fcfBase$14.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.3%
  • fcfBase$14.6M
Earnings Power Value
$36.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$52.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48.92
The three cases
Bear0.0%$34.69
Base7.3%$48.92
Bull12.3%$60.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010585 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038005 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046927 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128416 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010585 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046927 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128416 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010585 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046927 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128416 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010585 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046927 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128416 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046927 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128416 (ShortTermBorrowings)