MeritValue

VISA INC.

Vdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

VISA INC. earns about 35% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.1B1$29.3B2$32.7B3$35.9B3$40B3
Net income$12.3B4$15B5$17.3B6$19.7B6$20.1B6
Operating cash flow$15.2B7$18.8B8$20.8B9$20B9$23.1B9
Capital expenditure$705M10$970M11$1.06B12$1.26B12$1.48B12
Free cash flow (derived)$14.5B7$17.9B8$19.7B9$18.7B9$21.6B9
Total debt$42B13$22.5B14$20.5B15$20.8B16$25.2B16
Cash & equivalents$16.5B17$15.7B18$16.3B19$12B20$17.2B20
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 34%FY23 39%FY24 41%FY25 44%

It earned an average 35% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001403161-23-000099 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001403161-24-000058 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001403161-25-000089 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001403161-23-000099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001403161-24-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001403161-25-000089 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001403161-23-000099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001403161-24-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001403161-25-000089 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001403161-23-000099 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001403161-24-000058 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001403161-25-000089 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001403161-22-000081 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001403161-23-000099 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001403161-24-000058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001403161-25-000089 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001403161-22-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001403161-23-000099 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001403161-24-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001403161-25-000089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)