MeritValue

UWM Holdings Corp

UWMCdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UWM Holdings Corp earns about 18% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.97B1$2.37B2$2.17B3$2.67B3$3.16B3
Net income$98.4M4$41.7M5−$13.2M6$14.4M6$27.4M6
Operating cash flow−$9.96B7$8.27B8$165.2M9−$6.24B9−$2.65B9
Capital expenditure$65.4M10$26.6M11$26.4M12$39.5M12$74M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$10B7$8.24B8$138.8M9−$6.28B9−$2.72B9
Total debt$2B13$2B14$1.99B15$2.79B16$2.98B16
Cash & equivalents$731.1M17$704.9M18$497.5M19$507.3M20$503.4M20
Diluted shares1.60B92.5M93.2M111.4M1.60B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.17
Free cash flow it threw off
−$17.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.65

10 shares is a claim on $9.97 of net worth that earned you $0.17 and generated −$17.02 of cash last year, against $18.65 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 42%FY22 28%FY23 5%FY24 8%FY25 6%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 49% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$27.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783398-24-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783398-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783398-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783398-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783398-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783398-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783398-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783398-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783398-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783398-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783398-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783398-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783398-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783398-24-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783398-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001783398-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783398-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783398-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783398-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001783398-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)