MeritValue

UNIVERSAL CORP /VA/

UVVdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNIVERSAL CORP /VA/ earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.14 and $39.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$2.09B1$2.55B2$2.72B3$2.92B3$2.89B3
Net income$86.6M4$124.1M5$119.6M6$95M6$32.6M6
Operating cash flow$44.9M7−$10.6M8−$74.6M9$327M9$129.1M9
Capital expenditure$53.2M10$54.7M11$66M12$62.6M12$48.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.32M7−$65.2M8−$140.6M9$264.4M9$80.3M9
Total debt$701.2M13$812.4M14$1.03B15$1.07B16$904.3M16
Cash & equivalents$81.6M17$64.7M17$55.6M18$260.1M19$62.2M19
Diluted shares24.9M24.9M25.0M25.1M25.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$562.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.89
Debt you’d be carrying
$359.26

10 shares is a claim on $562.31 of net worth that earned you $12.97 and generated $31.89 of cash last year, against $359.26 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 8%FY25 8%FY26 4%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 29% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.14 and $39.13 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$27.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$80.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$23.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$80.3M
Earnings Power Value
$39.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$95M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $23.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.11
Base5.0%$23.14
Bull10.0%$36.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-039511 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-039511 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-039511 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-039511 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000102037-23-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-039511 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000102037-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-039511 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)