MeritValue

UNIVEST FINANCIAL Corp

UVSPdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNIVEST FINANCIAL Corp earns about 39% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.94 and $59.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$296.2M2$296.8M3$299.2M3$328.1M3
Net income$91.8M4$78.1M5$71.1M6$75.9M6$90.8M6
Operating cash flow$102.3M7$109.5M8$89.7M9$75.1M9$101.5M9
Capital expenditure$5.88M10$5.22M11$6.72M12$3.1M12$4.59M12
Free cash flow (derived)$96.5M7$104.2M8$83M9$72M9$96.9M9
Total debt$20.1M13$197.1M14$6.31M15$11.2M16$24.4M16
Cash & equivalents$890.2M17$152.8M18$249.8M18$328.8M18$553.7M18
Diluted shares29.6M29.6M29.5M29.4M29.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$325.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.42

10 shares is a claim on $325.54 of net worth that earned you $31.32 and generated $33.45 of cash last year, against $8.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
39% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 13%FY23 32%FY24 43%FY25 68%

It earned about 39% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.94 and $59.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$56.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$83M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$59.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$83M
Earnings Power Value
$27.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$78.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $59.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$59.2
Base0.0%$59.2
Bull5.0%$69.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102212-22-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102212-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102212-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102212-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102212-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102212-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102212-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102212-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102212-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102212-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102212-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102212-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102212-23-000016 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102212-24-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102212-25-000006 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000102212-26-000012 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102212-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102212-26-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)