MeritValue

UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS, INC.

UVEdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS, INC. earns about -112% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.09 and $74.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.12B1$1.22B2$1.39B3$1.52B3$1.6B3
Net income$20.4M4−$22.3M5$66.8M6$58.9M6$183M6
Operating cash flow$234.4M7$324.5M8$71M9$137.4M9$381.5M9
Capital expenditure$7.23M10$4.9M11$4.02M12$7.37M12$4.44M12
Free cash flow (derived)$227.2M7$319.6M8$67M9$130M9$377.1M9
Total debt$103.7M13$102.8M14$102M15$101.2M16$100.5M16
Cash & equivalents$250.5M17$388.7M18$397.3M19$259.4M19$408.9M19
Diluted shares31.3M30.8M30.1M29.3M29.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$130.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$34.7

10 shares is a claim on $190.3 of net worth that earned you $63.18 and generated $130.22 of cash last year, against $34.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-112% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 -832%FY23 156%FY24 29%FY25 77%

It earned about -112% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.09 and $74.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$69.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$130M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$74.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$130M
Earnings Power Value
$21.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$58.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$52.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $74.79
The three cases
Bear0.0%$74.79
Base0.0%$74.79
Bull5.0%$90.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891166-24-000013 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891166-25-000025 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891166-26-000010 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891166-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891166-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891166-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891166-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891166-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891166-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891166-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891166-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891166-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891166-23-000022 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891166-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891166-25-000025 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891166-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891166-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891166-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891166-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)