MeritValue

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

UUPdata completeness 63%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund earns about 3% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$154,9581$29M2$40.3M3$19.3M3$11.6M3
Net income$22.8M4$81.3M5$21.1M6$44.5M6−$22.1M6
Operating cash flow−$328.3M7−$847.6M8$1.26B9$22.1M9$176.8M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$010$5.58M11$1.04M11$556,91211$011
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 10%FY25 -10%

It earned an average 3% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Not enough history to read capital allocation.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019064 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027275 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083557 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027275 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083557 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027275 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083557 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027275 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083557 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)