MeritValue

Utz Brands, Inc.

UTZdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Utz Brands, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.18B1$1.41B2$1.44B3$1.41B3$1.44B3
Net income$20.6M4−$392,0005−$24.9M6$15.9M6$800,0006
Operating cash flow$48.4M7$48.2M8$76.6M9$106.2M9$112.2M9
Capital expenditure$31.7M10$88M11$55.7M12$98.6M12$102.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$16.6M7−$39.8M8$20.9M9$7.6M9$9.4M9
Total debt$1.68B13$1.82B14$1.8B15$1.54B16$1.7B16
Cash & equivalents$41.9M17$72.9M18$52M19$56.1M20$120.4M20
Diluted shares81.1M80.1M81.1M85.4M87.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$81.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$193.59

10 shares is a claim on $81.31 of net worth that earned you $0.09 and generated $1.07 of cash last year, against $193.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY22 1%FY23 0%FY23 1%FY24 3%FY25 1%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$9.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$9.4M
Earnings Power Value
$0.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$800,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001739566-24-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001739566-25-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007757 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001739566-24-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001739566-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007757 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001739566-24-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001739566-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007757 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001739566-24-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001739566-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007757 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001739566-23-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001739566-24-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739566-25-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-007757 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001739566-23-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001739566-24-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739566-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-007757 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)