MeritValue

UNITIL CORP

UTLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNITIL CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $27.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$473.3M1$563.2M2$557.1M3$494.8M3$536M3
Net income$36.1M4$41.4M5$45.2M6$47.1M6$50.2M6
Operating cash flow$107.8M7$97.7M8$107M9$125.9M9$131.3M9
Capital expenditure$115M10$122.1M11$141M12$169.9M12$185.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.2M7−$24.4M8−$34M9−$44M9−$53.8M9
Total debt$1.08B13$1.11B14$1.19B15$1.39B16$1.6B16
Cash & equivalents$6.5M17$9M18$6.5M19$6.3M20$15.6M20
Diluted shares15.4M16.0M16.1M16.1M16.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$363.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.9
Free cash flow it threw off
−$32.05
Debt you’d be carrying
$951.11

10 shares is a claim on $363.12 of net worth that earned you $29.9 and generated −$32.05 of cash last year, against $951.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 48% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$27.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$45.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$49.26
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014186 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017154 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042983 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014186 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017154 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042983 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014186 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017154 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042983 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014186 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017154 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042983 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002696 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014186 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017154 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042983 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002696 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014186 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017154 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042983 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)