MeritValue

UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC

UTIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 68% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.82 and $18.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$335.1M1$418.8M2$607.4M3$732.7M3$835.6M3
Net income$14.6M4$25.8M5$12.3M6$42M6$63M6
Operating cash flow$55.2M7$46M8$49.1M9$85.9M9$97.3M9
Capital expenditure$61.3M10$79.5M11$56.7M12$24.3M12$42M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.12M7−$33.4M8−$7.54M9$61.6M9$55.4M9
Total debt$61.5M13$135.1M14$324.2M15$251.4M16$174.2M16
Cash & equivalents$133.7M17$66.5M18$151.5M18$161.9M18$127.4M18
Diluted shares33.1M33.7M34.5M50.9M55.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.33
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$31.32

10 shares is a claim on $59 of net worth that earned you $11.33 and generated $9.95 of cash last year, against $31.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 8%FY23 5%FY24 12%FY25 17%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+68% shares · 5y

Share count is up 68% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 183% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.82 and $18.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$55.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$55.4M
Earnings Power Value
$4.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.38
Base5.0%$16.82
Bull10.0%$20.94

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001261654-23-000101 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001261654-24-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001261654-25-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001261654-23-000101 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001261654-24-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001261654-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001261654-23-000101 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001261654-24-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001261654-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001261654-23-000101 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001261654-24-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001261654-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001261654-22-000105 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001261654-23-000101 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001261654-24-000062 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001261654-25-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001261654-24-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001261654-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)