MeritValue

U S PHYSICAL THERAPY INC /NV

USPHdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

U S PHYSICAL THERAPY INC /NV earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.96 and $53.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$495M1$553.1M2$604.8M3$671.3M3$781M3
Net income$40.8M4$32.2M5$28.2M6$31.4M6$39.6M6
Operating cash flow$76.4M7$58.5M8$82M9$74.9M9$75.1M9
Capital expenditure$8.2M10$8.25M11$9.29M12$9.19M12$14.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$68.2M7$50.3M8$72.7M9$65.8M9$61M9
Total debt$236.8M13$183.7M14$146.7M15$153.5M16$162.5M16
Cash & equivalents$28.6M17$31.6M18$152.8M19$41.4M20$35.6M20
Diluted shares12.9M13.0M14.2M15.1M15.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$313.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$107.06

10 shares is a claim on $313.96 of net worth that earned you $26.08 and generated $40.19 of cash last year, against $107.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 9%FY23 8%FY24 8%FY25 10%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 31% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.96 and $53.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$65.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$53.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$65.8M
Earnings Power Value
$21.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$32.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$31.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $53.55
The three cases
Bear0.0%$53.55
Base0.0%$53.55
Bull5.0%$68.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010454 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006750 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007170 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010454 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006750 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007170 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010454 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006750 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007170 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010454 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006750 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007170 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-009198 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010454 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006750 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007170 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-009198 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010454 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006750 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007170 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)