MeritValue

USANA HEALTH SCIENCES INC

USNAdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

USANA HEALTH SCIENCES INC earns about 36% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.59 and $47.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$1.19B1$998.6M2$921M3$854.5M3$925.3M3
Net income$116.5M4$69.4M5$63.8M6$42M6$10.8M6
Operating cash flow$121.2M7$103.9M8$70.6M9$61M9$22.3M9
Capital expenditure$12.8M10$10.4M11$14.5M12$10.1M12$13.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$108.5M7$93.5M8$56.1M9$50.9M9$8.53M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$239.8M13$288.4M14$330.4M15$181.8M15$158.4M15
Diluted shares20.3M19.3M19.3M19.2M18.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$287.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.59
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $287.02 of net worth that earned you $5.79 and generated $4.59 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
36% avg · 5y
FY22 75%FY22 48%FY23 38%FY24 12%FY26 6%

It earned about 36% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.59 and $47.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$44.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$50.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$50.9M
Earnings Power Value
$35.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$63.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.7
Base0.0%$47.7
Bull5.0%$57.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000896264-24-000093 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896264-25-000092 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000896264-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000896264-24-000093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896264-25-000092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000896264-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000896264-24-000093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896264-25-000092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000896264-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000896264-24-000093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896264-25-000092 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000896264-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000896264-24-000093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896264-25-000092 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000896264-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)