MeritValue

UNITED STATES LIME & MINERALS INC

USLMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNITED STATES LIME & MINERALS INC earns about 37% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 407% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.89 and $217.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$189.3M1$236.2M2$281.3M3$317.7M3$372.7M3
Net income$37M4$45.4M5$74.5M6$108.8M6$134.3M6
Operating cash flow$55.7M7$64.4M8$92.3M9$126M9$165M9
Capital expenditure$29.9M10$26.8M11$34.3M12$27.4M12$62.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$25.8M7$37.5M8$58M9$98.6M9$102.3M9
Total debt$013$014$015$016$016
Cash & equivalents$105.4M17$133.4M18$188M19$278M20$371.1M20
Diluted shares5.7M28.4M28.5M28.7M28.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$219.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$46.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$35.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $219.52 of net worth that earned you $46.73 and generated $35.59 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
37% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 24%FY23 36%FY24 50%FY25 52%

It earned about 37% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+407% shares · 5y

Share count is up 407% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.89 and $217.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$217.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$98.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$124.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$98.6M
Earnings Power Value
$26.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$74.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $124.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$61.95
Base20.0%$124.8
Bull20.0%$124.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002201 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001798 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020480 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002201 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001798 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020480 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002201 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001798 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020480 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002201 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001798 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020480 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001894 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002201 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001798 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020480 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001894 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002201 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001798 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020480 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)