MeritValue

Usio, Inc.

USIOdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Usio, Inc. earns about -12% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 34% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.49 and $1.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$61.9M1$69.4M2$84.1M3$82.9M4$85.4M4
Net income−$321,6345−$5.48M6−$475,1047$3.31M8−$2.51M8
Operating cash flow$29.8M9−$17M10$3.51M11$2.9M12$1.51M12
Capital expenditure$1.27M13$812,24214$834,96415$195,87716$435,01416
Free cash flow (derived)$28.5M9−$17.8M10$2.67M11$2.7M12$1.08M12
Total debt$126,19417$71,42318$826,25019$1.44M20$2.73M20
Cash & equivalents$7.26M21$5.71M22$7.16M23$8.06M23$7.43M23
Diluted shares20.0M20.4M26.5M26.9M26.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.4
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.01

10 shares is a claim on $6.65 of net worth that earned you −$0.93 and generated $0.4 of cash last year, against $1.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-12% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 -50%FY23 -2%FY24 5%FY25 -12%

It earned about -12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+34% shares · 5y

Share count is up 34% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 2062% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.49 and $1.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.67M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.67M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.59
Base0.0%$1.59
Bull5.0%$1.94

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005794 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009583 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009368 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008833 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005794 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009583 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009368 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008833 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005794 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009583 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009368 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008833 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005794 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009583 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009368 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008833 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005794 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009583 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009368 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008833 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009583 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009368 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008833 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)