US Foods Holding Corp.
USFDdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on fileUS Foods Holding Corp. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.26 and $216.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.5B1 | $34.1B2 | $35.6B3 | $37.9B3 | $39.4B3 |
| Net income | $164M4 | $265M5 | $506M6 | $494M6 | $676M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $419M7 | $765M8 | $1.14B9 | $1.17B9 | $1.37B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $274M10 | $265M11 | $309M12 | $341M12 | $410M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $145M7 | $500M8 | $831M9 | $833M9 | $959M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $148M13 | $211M14 | $269M15 | $59M15 | $41M15 |
| Diluted shares | 225.0M | 226.0M | 250.0M | 244.0M | 230.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $187.26 of net worth that earned you $29.39 and generated $41.7 of cash last year.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.26 and $216.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$833M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$833M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$494M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $51.92 |
| Base | 20.0% | $118.26 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $118.26 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001665918-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001665918-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001665918-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001665918-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001665918-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001665918-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001665918-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001665918-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001665918-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001665918-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001665918-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001665918-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001665918-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001665918-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001665918-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)