MeritValue

US BANCORP \DE\

USBdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

US BANCORP \DE\ earns about 72% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $41.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.5B1$24.3B2$28.1B3$27.5B3$28.7B3
Net income$7.96B4$5.83B5$5.43B6$6.3B6$7.57B6
Operating cash flow$9.87B7$21.1B8$8.39B9$11.4B9$7.97B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$43.9B10$71B10$15.3B11$15.5B12$17.2B12
Cash & equivalents$28.9B13$53.5B14$61.2B14$56.5B14$46.9B14
Diluted shares1.49B1.49B1.54B1.56B1.56B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$418.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$48.59
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$110.15

10 shares is a claim on $418.44 of net worth that earned you $48.59 last year, against $110.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
72% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 12%FY23 165%FY24 110%FY25 59%

It earned an average 72% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 61% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$41.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$65.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000036104-24-000018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036104-25-000016 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036104-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000036104-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036104-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036104-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000036104-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036104-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036104-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-050691 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036104-25-000016 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000036104-26-000011 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000036104-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036104-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)