MeritValue

URBAN OUTFITTERS INC

URBNdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

URBAN OUTFITTERS INC earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.06 and $208.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$4.55B1$4.8B2$5.15B3$5.55B3$6.17B3
Net income$310.6M4$159.7M5$287.7M6$402.5M6$464.9M6
Operating cash flow$359.3M7$142.7M8$509.4M9$502.8M9$575.2M9
Capital expenditure$262.4M10$199.5M11$199.6M12$182.6M12$260.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$96.9M7−$56.8M8$309.8M9$320.3M9$315M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$206.6M13$201.3M14$178.3M15$290.5M16$369.2M16
Diluted shares99.3M94.1M94.3M94.4M91.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$306.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.31
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $306.65 of net worth that earned you $50.64 and generated $34.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY22 20%FY23 10%FY24 15%FY25 19%FY26 19%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.06 and $208.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$208.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$315M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$115.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$315M
Earnings Power Value
$35.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$310.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $115.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$53.05
Base20.0%$115.89
Bull20.0%$115.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039320 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048506 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-137916 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039320 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048506 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-137916 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039320 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048506 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-137916 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039320 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048506 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-137916 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011597 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039320 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048506 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-137916 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)