MeritValue

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

UPSTdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Upstart Holdings, Inc. earns about -10% on equity, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$801.3M1$907.3M1$513.6M2$636.5M2$1.04B2
Net income$135.4M3−$108.7M4−$240.1M5−$128.6M5$53.6M5
Operating cash flow$168.4M6−$657.9M7−$111.7M8$186.3M8−$147.7M8
Capital expenditure$8.43M9$8.83M10$1.53M11$837,00011$347,00011
Free cash flow (derived)$159.9M6−$666.7M7−$113.2M8$185.5M8−$148.1M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.19B12$532.5M13$368.4M14$788.4M15$652.4M15
Diluted shares94.8M82.8M83.8M89.5M107.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$74.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.99
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.78
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $74.31 of net worth that earned you $4.99 and generated −$13.78 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-10% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 -16%FY23 -38%FY24 -20%FY25 7%

It earned an average -10% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647639-23-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647639-26-000027 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647639-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001647639-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647639-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647639-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001647639-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647639-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647639-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001647639-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647639-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647639-25-000018 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001647639-26-000027 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647639-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001647639-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)