MeritValue

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC

UPSdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $57.42 and $81.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$97.3B1$100.3B2$91B3$91.1B3$88.7B3
Net income$12.9B4$11.5B5$6.71B6$5.78B6$5.57B6
Operating cash flow$15B7$14.1B8$10.2B9$10.1B9$8.45B9
Capital expenditure$4.19B10$4.77B11$5.16B12$3.91B12$3.69B12
Free cash flow (derived)$10.8B7$9.34B8$5.08B9$6.21B9$4.77B9
Total debt$43.6B13$41.4B13$25.3B14$22.9B15$24.2B16
Cash & equivalents$10.3B17$5.6B18$3.21B19$6.11B20$5.89B20
Diluted shares878.0M875.0M860.0M856.0M850.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$65.55
Free cash flow it threw off
$56.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$284.62

10 shares is a claim on $190.91 of net worth that earned you $65.55 and generated $56.06 of cash last year, against $284.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 28%FY22 22%FY23 19%FY24 17%FY25 16%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 45% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $57.42 and $81.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.08B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$63.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.08B
Earnings Power Value
$81.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.71B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $63.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.85
Base0.0%$63.85
Bull5.0%$84.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001090727-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001090727-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008432 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001090727-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001090727-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008432 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001090727-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001090727-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008432 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001090727-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001090727-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008432 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001090727-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001090727-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001090727-25-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008432 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001090727-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001090727-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001090727-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008432 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)