MeritValue

UPBOUND GROUP, INC.

UPBDdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UPBOUND GROUP, INC. earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.95 and $37.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.58B1$4.25B2$3.99B3$4.32B3$4.7B3
Net income$134.9M4$12.4M5−$5.18M6$123.5M6$73.2M6
Operating cash flow$392.3M7$468.5M8$200.3M9$104.7M9$305.6M9
Capital expenditure$62.5M10$61.4M11$53.4M12$56.3M12$66.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$329.8M7$407.1M8$146.9M9$48.4M9$238.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$108.3M13$144.1M14$93.7M15$60.9M16$120.5M16
Diluted shares66.8M59.0M55.0M55.9M58.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$118.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $118.7 of net worth that earned you $12.5 and generated $40.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 45%FY22 20%FY23 18%FY24 35%FY25 26%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.95 and $37.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$35.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$146.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$146.9M
Earnings Power Value
$12.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$73.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.86
Base0.0%$37.86
Bull5.0%$46.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000933036-24-000048 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000933036-25-000042 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000933036-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000933036-24-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000933036-25-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000933036-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000933036-24-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000933036-25-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000933036-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000933036-24-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000933036-25-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000933036-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000933036-23-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000933036-24-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000933036-25-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000933036-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)