MeritValue

Upstream Bio, Inc.

UPBdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Upstream Bio, Inc. earns about -28% on equity, but has diluted owners by 1723% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.38M1$2.37M2$2.85M2
Net income−$20.5M3−$62.8M4−$143.4M4
Operating cash flow−$37.9M5−$59.2M6−$133.3M6
Capital expenditure$144,0007$511,0008$165,0008
Free cash flow (derived)−$38.1M5−$59.7M6−$133.4M6
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$25.8M9$325.9M10$101.6M10
Diluted shares3.0M13.7M53.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$63.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$26.64
Free cash flow it threw off
−$24.78
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $63.09 of net worth that earned you −$26.64 and generated −$24.78 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-28% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 -13%FY25 -42%

It earned an average -28% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1723% shares · 3y

Share count is up 1723% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037621 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126188 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037621 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126188 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037621 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126188 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037621 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126188 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037621 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126188 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)