UNITY BANCORP INC /NJ/

UNTYdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNITY BANCORP INC /NJ/ earns about 110% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $40.25 and $188.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$84.8M1$100.7M2$143.5M3$155.7M4$173.6M4
Net income$36.1M5$38.5M6$39.7M7$41.5M8$58M8
Operating cash flow$32.5M9$42.7M10$46.9M11$48M12$44.9M12
Capital expenditure$1.25M13$1.48M14$955,00015$693,00016$564,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$31.3M9$41.2M10$46M11$47.3M12$44.3M12
Total debt$50.3M17$393.3M18$366.7M19$230.8M20
Cash & equivalents$244.8M21$114.8M22$194.8M23$180.4M23$216.5M23
Diluted shares10.5M10.7M10.3M10.2M10.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$338.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$56.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.37
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $338.09 of net worth that earned you $56.69 and generated $43.37 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
110% avg · 5y
FY21 374%FY22 9%FY23 18%FY24 34%FY25 114%

It earned about 110% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 359% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $40.25 and $188.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$188.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.7%
  • fcfBase$46M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$135.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.7%
  • fcfBase$46M
Earnings Power Value
$40.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$39.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$65.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $135.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$85.41
Base13.7%$135.45
Bull18.7%$160.44

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920427-23-000015 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920427-24-000013 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000920427-25-000016 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000920427-26-000012 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920427-23-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920427-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000920427-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000920427-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920427-23-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920427-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000920427-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000920427-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920427-23-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920427-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000920427-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000920427-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920427-22-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920427-23-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000920427-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000920427-25-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920427-24-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920427-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000920427-26-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)