MeritValue

UNION PACIFIC CORP

UNPdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNION PACIFIC CORP earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $70.66 and $117.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$21.8B1$24.9B2$24.1B3$24.3B3$24.5B3
Net income$6.52B4$7B5$6.38B6$6.75B6$7.14B6
Operating cash flow$9.03B7$9.36B8$8.38B9$9.35B9$9.29B9
Capital expenditure$2.94B10$3.62B11$3.61B12$3.45B12$3.79B12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.1B7$5.74B8$4.77B9$5.89B9$5.5B9
Total debt$30.1B13$33.5B14$32.6B14$31.2B15$31.8B16
Cash & equivalents$960M17$973M18$1.06B19$1.02B19$1.27B19
Diluted shares655.4M624.0M610.2M608.6M595.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$309.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$119.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$92.28
Debt you’d be carrying
$533.88

10 shares is a claim on $309.9 of net worth that earned you $119.79 and generated $92.28 of cash last year, against $533.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 18%FY23 16%FY24 14%FY25 15%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $70.66 and $117.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$70.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.5B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$80.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.5B
Earnings Power Value
$117.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.75B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$91.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $80.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$80.58
Base0.0%$80.58
Bull5.0%$112.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-003599 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100885-25-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100885-26-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-003599 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100885-25-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100885-26-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-003599 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100885-25-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100885-26-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-003599 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100885-25-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100885-26-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-002959 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-003599 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000100885-25-000042 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000100885-26-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-003599 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100885-25-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100885-26-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)