MeritValue

Unum Group

UNMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Unum Group earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.94 and $76.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12B1$12B2$12.4B3$12.9B3$13.1B3
Net income$981M4$1.41B5$1.28B6$1.78B6$738.5M6
Operating cash flow$1.39B7$1.42B8$1.2B9$1.51B9$687.7M9
Capital expenditure$110.3M10$102.2M11$134.8M12$125.7M12$132.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.28B7$1.32B8$1.07B9$1.39B9$555.4M9
Total debt$6.88B13$6.86B14$6.86B15$7.48B16$7.54B16
Cash & equivalents$75M17$119.2M18$146M18$162.8M18$158.2M18
Diluted shares204.8M202.1M197.6M188.1M172.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$643.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$42.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$435.76

10 shares is a claim on $643.01 of net worth that earned you $42.71 and generated $32.12 of cash last year, against $435.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 9%FY23 8%FY24 10%FY25 4%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.94 and $76.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$38.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.07B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.07B
Earnings Power Value
$76.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.28B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$78.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.58
Base0.0%$45.58
Bull5.0%$66.94

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005513-24-000015 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005513-25-000015 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005513-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005513-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005513-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005513-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005513-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005513-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005513-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005513-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005513-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005513-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005513-23-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005513-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005513-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000005513-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005513-25-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005513-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)