MeritValue

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC

UNHdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $196.62 and $279.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$287.6B1$324.2B2$371.6B3$400.3B3$447.6B3
Net income$17.3B4$20.1B5$22.4B6$14.4B6$12.1B6
Operating cash flow$22.3B7$26.2B8$29.1B9$24.2B9$19.7B9
Capital expenditure$2.45B10$2.8B11$3.39B12$3.5B12$3.62B12
Free cash flow (derived)$19.9B7$23.4B8$25.7B9$20.7B9$16.1B9
Total debt$49.6B13$57.6B14$62.5B15$76.9B16$78.4B16
Cash & equivalents$21.4B17$23.4B18$25.4B19$25.3B20$24.4B20
Diluted shares956.0M950.0M938.0M929.0M911.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,098.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$132.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$176.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$860.47

10 shares is a claim on $1,098.68 of net worth that earned you $132.34 and generated $176.45 of cash last year, against $860.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 19%FY23 20%FY24 12%FY25 11%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 58% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $196.62 and $279.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$263.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.0%
  • fcfBase$20.7B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$279.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.0%
  • fcfBase$20.7B
Earnings Power Value
$196.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$17.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$180.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $279.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$265.43
Base1.0%$279.34
Bull6.0%$360.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000731766-24-000081 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000731766-25-000063 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000731766-26-000062 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000731766-24-000081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000731766-25-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000731766-26-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000731766-24-000081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000731766-25-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000731766-26-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000731766-24-000081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000731766-25-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000731766-26-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000731766-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000731766-24-000081 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000731766-25-000063 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000731766-26-000062 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000731766-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000731766-24-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000731766-25-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000731766-26-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)