MeritValue

UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC

UNFIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC earns about 2% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27B1$28.9B2$30.3B3$31B3$31.8B3
Net income$149M4$248M5$24M6−$112M6−$118M6
Operating cash flow$614M7$331M8$624M9$253M9$470M9
Capital expenditure$310M10$251M11$323M12$345M12$231M12
Free cash flow (derived)$304M7$80M8$301M9−$92M9$239M9
Total debt$4.38B13$4.25B14$3.93B15$4.17B16$3.72B16
Cash & equivalents$41M17$44M18$37M19$40M20$44M20
Diluted shares60.0M61.0M60.7M59.3M60.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$257.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$618.6

10 shares is a claim on $257.64 of net worth that earned you −$19.6 and generated $39.7 of cash last year, against $618.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 6%FY23 3%FY24 -2%FY25 -2%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$239M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$239M
Earnings Power Value
$4.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$24M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001020859-23-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001020859-24-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001020859-25-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001020859-23-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001020859-24-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001020859-25-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001020859-23-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001020859-24-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001020859-25-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001020859-23-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001020859-24-000045 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001020859-25-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001020859-22-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001020859-23-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001020859-24-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-03 · accession 0001020859-25-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001020859-22-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001020859-23-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001020859-24-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-03 · accession 0001020859-25-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)