MeritValue

UMH PROPERTIES, INC.

UMHdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

UMH PROPERTIES, INC. earns about 2% on equity, but has diluted owners by 79% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.1M1$25.3M2$31.2M3$33.5M3$35M3
Net income$51.1M4−$4.97M5$7.85M6$21.4M6$26.3M6
Operating cash flow$65.2M7−$7.23M8$120.1M9$81.6M9$82M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$116.2M10$29.8M11$57.3M11$99.7M11$72.1M11
Diluted shares47.4M55.3M63.7M74.9M84.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$106.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.1
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $106.92 of net worth that earned you $3.1 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
2% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 -1%FY23 1%FY24 2%FY25 3%

It earned an average 2% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+79% shares · 5y

Share count is up 79% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$2.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008183 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-008351 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-005400 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-008351 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008042 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008183 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-008351 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-008351 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)