MeritValue

UMB FINANCIAL CORP

UMBFdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UMB FINANCIAL CORP earns about 12% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 51% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $60.72 and $186.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$861.5M1$1.14B2$1.84B3$2.17B3$3.35B3
Net income$353M4$431.7M5$350M6$441.2M6$702.4M6
Operating cash flow$534.1M7$769.6M8$472.6M9$225.3M9$1.03B9
Capital expenditure$33.7M10$51.7M11$23.1M12$20M12$48.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$500.4M7$717.8M8$449.5M9$205.3M9$978.1M9
Total debt$271.5M13$381.3M14$2.18B15$385.3M16$474.2M16
Cash & equivalents$9.21B17$1.56B18$5.53B19$8.45B20$7.77B20
Diluted shares48.7M48.7M48.8M49.1M73.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,044.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$95.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$132.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$64.37

10 shares is a claim on $1,044.32 of net worth that earned you $95.34 and generated $132.77 of cash last year, against $64.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
12% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 16%FY23 11%FY24 13%FY25 9%

It earned about 12% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+51% shares · 5y

Share count is up 51% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 75% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.72 and $186.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$179.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$449.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$186.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$449.5M
Earnings Power Value
$60.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$431.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$147.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $186.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$186.24
Base0.0%$186.24
Bull5.0%$207.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018456 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028420 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076496 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018456 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028420 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076496 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018456 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028420 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076496 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018456 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028420 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076496 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002256 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018456 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028420 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076496 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002256 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018456 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028420 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076496 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)