MeritValue

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

ULTAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ulta Beauty, Inc. earns about 78% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $276.65 and $469.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$8.63B1$10.2B2$11.2B3$11.3B3$12.4B3
Net income$985.8M4$1.24B5$1.29B6$1.2B6$1.15B6
Operating cash flow$1.06B7$1.48B8$1.48B9$1.34B9$1.5B9
Capital expenditure$172.2M10$312.1M11$435.3M12$374.5M12$434.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$887.1M7$1.17B8$1.04B9$964.1M9$1.07B9
Total debt————$62.3M13
Cash & equivalents$431.6M14$737.9M15$766.6M16$703.2M17$424.2M17
Diluted shares54.8M51.7M49.6M47.4M45.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$623.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$256.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$237.37
Debt you’d be carrying
$13.84

10 shares is a claim on $623.11 of net worth that earned you $256.38 and generated $237.37 of cash last year, against $13.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
78% avg · 5y
FY22 89%FY23 102%FY24 85%FY25 67%FY26 47%

It earned about 78% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $276.65 and $469.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$469.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.5%
  • fcfBase$1.04B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$427.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.5%
  • fcfBase$1.04B
Earnings Power Value
$276.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.2B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$189.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $427.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$338.63
Base5.5%$427.1
Bull10.5%$524.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-003941 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-003810 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-035243 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-003941 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-003810 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-035243 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-003941 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-003810 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-035243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-003941 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-003810 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-035243 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2026-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035243 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-23-004581 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-24-003941 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001558370-25-003810 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001104659-26-035243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)