UL Solutions Inc.

ULSdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

UL Solutions Inc. earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.77 and $49.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.52B1$2.68B2$2.87B2$3.05B2
Net income$293M3$260M4$326M4$325M4
Operating cash flow$372M5$467M6$524M6$600M6
Capital expenditure$164M7$215M8$237M8$197M8
Free cash flow (derived)$208M5$252M6$287M6$403M6
Total debt$1.81B9$1.48B10$982M10
Cash & equivalents$322M11$315M12$298M13$295M13
Diluted shares200.0M200.0M201.0M203.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$62.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$48.37

10 shares is a claim on $62.17 of net worth that earned you $16.01 and generated $19.85 of cash last year, against $48.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 4y
FY22 41%FY23 13%FY24 17%FY25 18%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 4y

Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 46% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.77 and $49.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$49.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.9%
  • fcfBase$287M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.9%
  • fcfBase$287M
Earnings Power Value
$15.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$309M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$14.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.82
Base13.9%$32.86
Bull18.9%$40.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001901440-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001901440-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001901440-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001901440-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001901440-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001901440-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001901440-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001901440-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001901440-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001901440-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001901440-26-000005 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001901440-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001901440-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)