MeritValue

UNIVERSAL LOGISTICS HOLDINGS, INC.

ULHdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNIVERSAL LOGISTICS HOLDINGS, INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $36.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.75B1$2.02B2$1.66B3$1.85B3$1.56B3
Net income$73.7M4$168.6M5$92.9M6$129.9M6−$99.9M6
Operating cash flow$83.3M7$213.4M8$210.2M9$112.4M9$183M9
Capital expenditure$38.8M10$117.1M11$240.6M12$251.6M12$224.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$44.4M7$96.3M8−$30.3M9−$139.2M9−$41.1M9
Total debt$854.7M13$757M14$763.8M15$1.52B16$1.6B16
Cash & equivalents$13.9M17$47.2M18$12.5M19$19.4M20$26.8M20
Diluted shares26.9M26.5M26.3M26.3M26.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$205.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$37.92
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$605.62

10 shares is a claim on $205.15 of net worth that earned you −$37.92 and generated −$15.62 of cash last year, against $605.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 16%FY23 9%FY24 7%FY25 -2%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 87% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$36.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$92.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032216 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040283 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108365 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032216 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040283 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108365 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032216 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040283 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108365 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032216 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040283 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108365 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008498 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032216 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040283 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108365 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008498 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032216 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040283 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108365 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)