MeritValue

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

ULCCdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.06B1$3.33B2$3.59B3$3.78B3$3.72B3
Net income−$102M4−$37M5−$11M6$85M6−$137M6
Operating cash flow$216M7−$78M8−$261M9−$82M9−$525M9
Capital expenditure$27M10$41M11$51M12$76M12$75M12
Free cash flow (derived)$189M7−$119M8−$312M9−$158M9−$600M9
Total debt$837M13$860M14$944M15$1.01B16$1.23B16
Cash & equivalents$918M17$761M18$609M19$740M20$671M20
Diluted shares211.4M217.6M220.1M226.5M227.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$21.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$26.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$54.18

10 shares is a claim on $21.56 of net worth that earned you −$6.01 and generated −$26.34 of cash last year, against $54.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 -25%FY22 -6%FY23 2%FY24 10%FY25 -10%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 47% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001670076-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670076-25-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001670076-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001670076-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670076-25-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001670076-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001670076-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670076-25-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001670076-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001670076-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670076-25-000041 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001670076-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001670076-23-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670076-24-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001670076-25-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001670076-26-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001670076-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670076-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001670076-25-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001670076-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)