MeritValue

UNILEVER PLC

ULdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

UNILEVER PLC earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between €30.82 and €66.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€52.4B1€60.1B2€51.7B3€52.5B3€50.5B3
Net income€6.05B4€7.64B5€6.49B6€5.74B6€9.47B6
Operating cash flow€7.97B7€7.28B8€9.43B9€9.52B9€8.35B9
Capital expenditure€1.11B10€1.46B11€1.19B12€1.38B12€1.42B12
Free cash flow (derived)€6.86B7€5.83B8€8.23B9€8.14B9€6.93B9
Total debt—€26.5B13€26.7B14€28.6B15€26B15
Cash & equivalents€3.42B16€4.33B17€4.16B18€6.14B19€3.94B19
Diluted shares2.63B2.63B2.52B2.52B2.18B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€71.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€43.42
Free cash flow it threw off
€31.79
Debt you’d be carrying
€119.39

10 shares is a claim on €71.21 of net worth that earned you €43.42 and generated €31.79 of cash last year, against €119.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 48%FY22 20%FY23 16%FY24 14%FY25 17%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €30.82 and €66.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€66.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.8%
  • fcfBase€8.14B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€58.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.8%
  • fcfBase€8.14B
Earnings Power Value
€30.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€6.49B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€26.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €58.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%€43.18
Base5.8%€58.49
Bull10.8%€74.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000217410-24-000017 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217410-25-000015 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000217410-26-000007 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000217410-24-000017 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217410-25-000015 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000217410-26-000007 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000217410-24-000017 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217410-25-000015 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000217410-26-000007 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000217410-24-000017 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217410-25-000015 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000217410-26-000007 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217410-24-000017 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000217410-25-000015 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000217410-26-000007 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000217410-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217410-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000217410-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000217410-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalents)