MeritValue

Ubiquiti Inc.

UIdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ubiquiti Inc. earns about 50% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $69.78 and $193.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.9B1$1.69B2$1.94B3$1.93B3$2.57B3
Net income$616.6M4$378.7M5$407.6M6$350M6$711.9M6
Operating cash flow$612M7$370.3M8−$145.4M9$541.5M9$640M9
Capital expenditure$18.3M10$13.5M11$20.9M12$12M12$12.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$593.7M7$356.8M8−$166.4M9$529.5M9$627.4M9
Total debt$984.6M13$1.26B14$2.16B15$1.41B16$499.6M16
Cash & equivalents$249.4M17$136.2M18$114.8M19$126.3M20$149.7M20
Diluted shares63.1M61.7M60.5M60.5M60.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$110.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$117.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$103.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$82.53

10 shares is a claim on $110.39 of net worth that earned you $117.61 and generated $103.65 of cash last year, against $82.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
50% avg · 5y
FY21 84%FY22 51%FY23 21%FY24 25%FY25 70%

It earned about 50% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 49% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $69.78 and $193.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$193.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.2%
  • fcfBase$529.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$164.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.2%
  • fcfBase$529.5M
Earnings Power Value
$69.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$407.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $164.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$119.21
Base7.2%$164.72
Bull12.2%$203.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001511737-23-000061 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001511737-24-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001511737-25-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001511737-23-000061 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001511737-24-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001511737-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001511737-23-000061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001511737-24-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001511737-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001511737-23-000061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001511737-24-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001511737-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001511737-22-000049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001511737-23-000061 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001511737-24-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001511737-25-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001511737-22-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001511737-23-000061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001511737-24-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001511737-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)