MeritValue

UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES INC

UHSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $159.4 and $640.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.6B1$13.4B2$14.3B3$15.8B3$17.4B3
Net income$991.6M4$675.6M5$717.8M6$1.14B6$1.49B6
Operating cash flow$883.7M7$996M8$1.27B9$2.07B9$1.86B9
Capital expenditure$855.7M10$734M11$743.1M12$943.8M12$1.02B12
Free cash flow (derived)$28M7$262M8$524.7M9$1.12B9$849.2M9
Total debt$8.38B13$9.62B14$9.82B15$9.01B16$9.51B16
Cash & equivalents$115.3M17$102.8M18$119.4M19$126M19$137.8M19
Diluted shares83.7M73.8M70.1M67.9M64.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,128.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$230.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$131.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,474.53

10 shares is a claim on $1,128.69 of net worth that earned you $230.96 and generated $131.74 of cash last year, against $1,474.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 8%FY25 10%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $159.4 and $640.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$640.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$849.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$284.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$849.2M
Earnings Power Value
$159.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$991.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$242.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $284.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$42.92
Base20.0%$284.22
Bull20.0%$284.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021175 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027785 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071676 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021175 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027785 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071676 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021175 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027785 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071676 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021175 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027785 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071676 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004656 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021175 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027785 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071676 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021175 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027785 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071676 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)