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UGI CORP /PA/

UGIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UGI CORP /PA/ earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $30.94 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.35B1$9.98B2$8.76B3$7.05B3$7.15B3
Net income$1.47B4$1.07B5−$1.5B6$269M6$678M6
Operating cash flow$1.48B7$716M8$1.11B9$1.18B9$1.23B9
Capital expenditure$690M10$804M11$974M12$796M12$837M12
Free cash flow (derived)$791M7,10−$88M8,11$133M9,12$386M9,12$390M9,12
Total debt$6.82B13,14$7B15,16$7.25B17,18$7.14B19,20$7.13B19,20
Cash & equivalents$855M21$405M22$241M23$213M23$335M23
Diluted shares212.1M215.8M209.8M215.3M219.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$217.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$325.52

10 shares is a claim on $217.97 of net worth that earned you $30.94 and generated $17.8 of cash last year, against $325.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 10%FY23 -10%FY24 2%FY25 6%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period10 years
  • FCF growth0.0%
  • Starting free cash flow$386M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period5 years
  • FCF growth0.0%
  • Starting free cash flow$386M
Earnings Power Value
$30.94
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$678M
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.93
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2023-11-29 · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2024-11-26 · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2025-11-21 · periods ending 2023-09-30, 2024-09-30, 2025-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K filed 2023-11-29 · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2024-11-26 · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2025-11-21 · periods ending 2023-09-30, 2024-09-30, 2025-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2023-11-29 · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2024-11-26 · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2025-11-21 · periods ending 2023-09-30, 2024-09-30, 2025-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2023-11-29 · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K filed 2024-11-26 · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K filed 2025-11-21 · periods ending 2023-09-30, 2024-09-30, 2025-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K filed 2022-11-21 · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-22-000061 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K filed 2022-11-21 · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-22-000061 (ShortTermBankLoansAndNotesPayable)
  15. 10-K filed 2023-11-29 · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K filed 2023-11-29 · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (ShortTermBankLoansAndNotesPayable)
  17. 10-K filed 2024-11-26 · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K filed 2024-11-26 · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (ShortTermBankLoansAndNotesPayable)
  19. 10-K filed 2025-11-21 · periods ending 2024-09-30, 2025-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K filed 2025-11-21 · periods ending 2024-09-30, 2025-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (ShortTermBankLoansAndNotesPayable)
  21. 10-K filed 2023-11-29 · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K filed 2024-11-26 · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K filed 2025-11-21 · periods ending 2023-09-30, 2024-09-30, 2025-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)