MeritValue

UGI CORP /PA/

UGIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UGI CORP /PA/ earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $32.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.35B1$9.98B2$8.76B3$7.05B3$7.15B3
Net income$1.47B4$1.07B5−$1.5B6$269M6$678M6
Operating cash flow$1.48B7$716M8$1.11B9$1.18B9$1.23B9
Capital expenditure$690M10$804M11$974M12$796M12$837M12
Free cash flow (derived)$791M7−$88M8$133M9$386M9$390M9
Total debt$12.9B13$13.3B14$13.2B15$13.4B16$13.3B16
Cash & equivalents$855M17$405M18$241M19$213M19$335M19
Diluted shares212.1M215.8M209.8M215.3M219.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$217.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$606.68

10 shares is a claim on $217.97 of net worth that earned you $30.94 and generated $17.8 of cash last year, against $606.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 7%FY23 -7%FY24 2%FY25 4%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$386M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$386M
Earnings Power Value
$32.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$678M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.93
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-22-000061 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000884614-23-000104 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000884614-24-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000884614-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)