MeritValue

UFP TECHNOLOGIES INC

UFPTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UFP TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $59.65 and $203.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$206.3M1$353.8M2$400.1M3$504.4M3$602.8M3
Net income$15.9M4$41.8M5$44.9M6$59M6$68.3M6
Operating cash flow$14.3M7$17.7M8$41.3M9$66.6M9$91.9M9
Capital expenditure$5.4M10$13.8M11$10.5M11$9.66M11—
Free cash flow (derived)$8.9M7$3.96M8$30.8M9$56.9M9—
Total debt$150M12$110M13$64M14$378.8M15$270.9M15
Cash & equivalents$11.1M16$4.45M17$5.26M18$13.5M19$20.3M19
Diluted shares7.6M7.7M7.7M7.8M7.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$543.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$87.54
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$347.14

10 shares is a claim on $543.15 of net worth that earned you $87.54 last year, against $347.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 13%FY23 14%FY24 9%FY25 10%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 81% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $59.65 and $203.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$203.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$30.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$96.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$30.8M
Earnings Power Value
$59.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$44.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$103.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $96.75
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24.36
Base20.0%$96.75
Bull20.0%$96.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001192 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012816 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001192 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012816 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001192 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012816 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001078 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001192 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001734 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001078 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001192 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012816 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001734 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001078 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001192 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012816 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)