MeritValue

UFP INDUSTRIES INC

UFPIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UFP INDUSTRIES INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $93.84 and $140.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.64B1$9.63B2$7.22B3$6.65B3$6.32B3
Net income$535.6M4$692.7M5$514.3M6$414.6M6$294.8M6
Operating cash flow$512.5M7$831.6M8$959.9M9$642.6M9$545.7M9
Capital expenditure$151.2M10$174.1M11$180.4M12$232.3M12$269.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$361.3M7$657.4M8$779.5M9$410.3M9$276.4M9
Total debt$640.6M13$556.4M14$552.9M15$467.9M16$459.5M16
Cash & equivalents$286.7M17$559.4M18$1.12B18$1.17B18$914.2M18
Diluted shares60.4M60.7M60.6M58.9M56.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$539.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$51.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$48.66
Debt you’d be carrying
$80.91

10 shares is a claim on $539.2 of net worth that earned you $51.9 and generated $48.66 of cash last year, against $80.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 28%FY23 22%FY24 17%FY25 11%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 28% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $93.84 and $140.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$140.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$410.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$132.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$410.3M
Earnings Power Value
$93.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$514.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$77.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $132.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$111.22
Base4.3%$132.58
Bull9.3%$161.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001558370-24-001963 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001595 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-019567 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001558370-24-001963 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001595 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-019567 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001558370-24-001963 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001595 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-019567 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001558370-24-001963 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001595 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-019567 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001558370-23-002546 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001963 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-001595 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001104659-26-019567 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001558370-25-001595 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019567 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)