MeritValue

UNITED FIRE GROUP INC

UFCSdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

UNITED FIRE GROUP INC earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $24.36 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.07B1$980.3M2$1.1B3$1.25B3$1.39B3
Net income$80.6M4$15M5−$29.7M6$62M6$118.2M6
Operating cash flow$29.9M7−$1.25M8$171.7M9$340.3M9$269.7M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$132.1M10$96.7M11$102M12$200.9M13$156.3M13
Diluted shares25.5M25.3M25.2M25.9M26.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$357.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$44.85
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $357.14 of net worth that earned you $44.85 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 2%FY23 -5%FY24 12%FY25 16%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$24.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$60
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101199-24-000019 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101199-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101199-26-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101199-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101199-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101199-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101199-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101199-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101199-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101199-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101199-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101199-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000101199-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)