MeritValue

Urban Edge Properties

UEdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Urban Edge Properties earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.29 and $8.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$425.1M1$397.9M2$416.9M3$445M3$471.9M3
Net income$102.7M4$46.2M5$248.5M6$72.6M6$93.5M6
Operating cash flow$135.3M7$139.6M8$163M9$153.2M9$182.7M9
Capital expenditure$95.4M10$116M11$115.7M12$110.6M12$100.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$39.9M7$23.6M8$47.3M9$42.6M9$81.8M9
Total debt$1.69B13$1.69B13———
Cash & equivalents$164.5M14$85.5M15$101.1M15$41.4M15$48.9M15
Diluted shares121.4M121.6M117.6M121.4M125.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$109.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $109.32 of net worth that earned you $7.43 and generated $6.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 4%FY23 29%FY24 11%FY25 13%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.29 and $8.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.8%
  • fcfBase$47.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.8%
  • fcfBase$47.3M
Earnings Power Value
$7.7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$93.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.75
Base5.8%$7.29
Bull10.8%$8.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001611547-24-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001611547-25-000018 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001611547-26-000022 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001611547-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001611547-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001611547-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001611547-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001611547-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001611547-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001611547-24-000012 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001611547-25-000018 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001611547-26-000022 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001611547-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001611547-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001611547-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)