MeritValue

UDR, Inc.

UDRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UDR, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.7 and $25.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.1M1$5.02M2$6.84M3$8.32M3$11.4M3
Net income$150M4$86.9M5$444.4M6$89.6M6$377.7M6
Operating cash flow$664M7$820.1M8$832.7M9$876.8M9$902.9M9
Capital expenditure$156.4M10$214.8M11$295.4M12$249.9M12$252.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$507.6M7$605.2M8$537.2M9$627M9$650M9
Total debt$5.41B13$5.49B14$5.8B15$5.83B16$5.82B16
Cash & equivalents$967,00017$1.19M18$2.92M18$1.33M18$1.22M18
Diluted shares301.7M322.7M329.1M330.1M331.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$99.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$175.84

10 shares is a claim on $99.33 of net worth that earned you $11.41 and generated $19.64 of cash last year, against $175.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 3%FY23 7%FY24 3%FY25 7%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.7 and $25.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$25.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.3%
  • fcfBase$627M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.3%
  • fcfBase$627M
Earnings Power Value
$4.7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$150M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.48
Base7.3%$19.45
Bull12.3%$27.94

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074208-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074208-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074208-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074208-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074208-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074208-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074208-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074208-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074208-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074208-24-000011 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074208-25-000010 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074208-26-000013 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074208-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074208-24-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074208-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000074208-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074208-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074208-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)