MeritValue

INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH FUND

UDNdata completeness 63%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH FUND earns about -2% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$36,9131$1.11M2$3.84M3$3.05M3$4.93M3
Net income−$5.55M4−$2.01M5$2.4M6−$3.45M6$9M6
Operating cash flow$39.2M7−$52.7M8$36.3M9$10.9M9−$78.5M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$010$564,41211$011$011$011
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 -11%FY22 -2%FY23 4%FY24 -7%FY25 6%

It earned an average -2% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Not enough history to read capital allocation.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019053 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027260 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083562 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027260 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083562 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027260 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083562 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027260 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083562 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)