MeritValue

UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS INC

UCBdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS INC earns about 57% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 38% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.02 and $37.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$744.4M1$826.2M2$893.2M3$952.1M3$1.06B3
Net income$269.8M4$277.5M5$187.5M6$252.4M6$328.1M6
Operating cash flow$359.3M7$607.3M8$294M9$349.7M9$384M9
Capital expenditure$26.5M10$42.7M11$72.5M12$47M12$27.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$332.8M7$564.6M8$221.5M9$302.7M9$356.5M9
Total debt$247.4M13$483.6M14$324.8M15$449.2M16$205.4M16
Cash & equivalents$2.32B17$646.9M18$1B18$519.9M18$395.8M18
Diluted shares88.1M106.8M117.7M119.9M121.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$299.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.91

10 shares is a claim on $299.64 of net worth that earned you $27.02 and generated $29.35 of cash last year, against $16.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
57% avg · 5y
FY21 194%FY22 13%FY23 20%FY24 27%FY25 30%

It earned about 57% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+38% shares · 5y

Share count is up 38% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.02 and $37.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$302.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$302.7M
Earnings Power Value
$23.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$269.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.18
Base0.0%$37.18
Bull5.0%$45.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000857855-24-000010 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000857855-25-000057 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000857855-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000857855-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000857855-25-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000857855-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000857855-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000857855-25-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000857855-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000857855-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000857855-25-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000857855-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000857855-23-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000857855-24-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000857855-25-000057 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000857855-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000857855-25-000057 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000857855-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)