MeritValue

UNITED BANKSHARES INC/WV

UBSIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

UNITED BANKSHARES INC/WV earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.25 and $56.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$331M1$312M1$1.4B2$1.5B2$1.69B2
Net income$367.7M3$379.6M4$366.3M5$373M5$464.6M5
Operating cash flow$609.5M6$760.8M7$435.2M8$445.5M8$498.9M8
Capital expenditure$15.4M9$16.9M10$11.7M11$12.1M11$17.7M11
Free cash flow (derived)$594.2M6$744M7$423.6M8$433.3M8$481.2M8
Total debt$946.2M12$2.36B13$1.99B14$716.5M15$730.4M16
Cash & equivalents$3.76B17$1.18B18$1.6B18$2.29B18$2.54B18
Diluted shares129.5M135.1M134.8M135.2M141.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$387.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$51.5

10 shares is a claim on $387.51 of net worth that earned you $32.76 and generated $33.93 of cash last year, against $51.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 8%FY23 14%FY24 32%FY25 36%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.25 and $56.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$53.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$433.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$56.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$433.3M
Earnings Power Value
$27.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$373M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $56.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.43
Base0.0%$56.43
Bull5.0%$66.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-056045 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081470 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-053462 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042589 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081470 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-053462 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042589 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081470 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-053462 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042589 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081470 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-061038 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-056045 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-053462 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042589 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081470 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-042589 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081470 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)