MeritValue

UBS Group AG

UBSdata completeness 63%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

UBS Group AG earns about 14% on equity, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $23.76 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$35.4B1————
Net income$7.49B2$7.66B3$27.4B4$5.15B4$7.8B4
Operating cash flow$31.4B5$14.6B6$86.1B7$3.28B7$21.9B7
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$207.9B8$195.3B9$340.2B9$244.1B9$231.4B9
Diluted shares3.70B3.52B3.46B3.46B3.34B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$269.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.33
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $269.97 of net worth that earned you $23.33 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
14% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 13%FY23 32%FY24 6%FY25 9%

It earned an average 14% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$23.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.66B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001610520-22-000028 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001610520-24-000041 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001610520-25-000023 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001610520-26-000023 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001610520-24-000041 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001610520-25-000023 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001610520-26-000023 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001610520-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001610520-26-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalents)