MeritValue

UNITED BANCSHARES INC/OH

UBOHdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

UNITED BANCSHARES INC/OH earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.9 and $295.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2018FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022
Revenue$1.61M1$1.49M2$1.1M3$1.09M3$1.23M3
Net income$8.22M4$10.7M5$13.8M6$13.6M6$11.3M6
Operating cash flow$5.15M7$3.62M8$17.2M9$26.4M9$16.8M9
Capital expenditure$525,00010$753,00011$1.58M12$3.96M12$3.58M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.62M7$2.87M8$15.6M9$22.5M9$13.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$16.5M13$26.4M14$57M14$75.2M14$30.7M14
Diluted shares3.3M3.3M3.3M3.3M3.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$253.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.43
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $253.29 of net worth that earned you $34.64 and generated $40.43 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY18 21%FY19 27%FY20 36%FY21 37%FY22 27%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.9 and $295.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$295.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$15.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$165.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$15.6M
Earnings Power Value
$35.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $165.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$77.83
Base20.0%$165.56
Bull20.0%$165.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001437749-21-005151 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-005332 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006386 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001437749-21-005151 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-005332 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006386 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001437749-21-005151 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-005332 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006386 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001437749-21-005151 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-005332 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006386 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-005332 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006386 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)